Saturday, May 16, 2009

Scenario Planning-Energy

Recently I have come across two energy scenarios till 2050 which may play out in future, called 'Scramble' and 'Blueprint'. Check out following link for a preliminary idea on what these scenario means

In a workshop we later worked on same scenarios for EU and China. When asked that which of these scenarios is more likely to work out, majority said 'Scramble'. A 'Scramble' scenario seems plausible where every country is for himself and is more likely given today’s recessionary scenario and rising protectionism sentiments.

But there is a hope that countries may not 'Scramble' in the end, just because they now are educated about the possible scenarios and know the benefits of 'Blueprint'. Hence armed with both the scenarios and an informed knowledge about how future can turn out depending on today's action, there might be a conscious efforts from countries to take the 'Blueprint' way.

I feel, to ensure good decision making, one need to educate the decision-makers the alternate realities that may occur and the actions which lead to it. The decision maker then due to very human nature to do good, will take the right and proactive steps rather than being reactive to incidents and taking short-sighted decisions.

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